Middle East Technical University

How people decide when the odds are moving.

I build the instruments that measure it, and I write things out to find out what I think. This site is where both of those live.

Decision science
Behavioral economics
Cognitive neuroscience
Quantitative finance

Work

Research instrument

Dynamic Hazard Rate BART

A full-stack web application administering a redesigned Balloon Analogue Risk Task and a Turkish adaptation of the DOSPERT-30. The data collection pipeline is paired with a scoring engine that analyzes the raw input and produces more than thirty behavioral metrics per session.

Download for Windowsv1.2.1 · 64-bit · no admin rights needed

Optimal stop: √N
Behavioral metrics: 30+
Session length: < 3 min

Expected value, survival, and hazard curves for the purple, teal, and orange balloons, with the optimal stopping point of each marked by a dashed line.

Python package2024 — present

grubeta

A physics-informed dual-pathway GRU that estimates time-varying CAPM beta while preserving the pricing identity it is estimating.

Distribution: PyPI

PythonTensorFlowKerasNumPypandas

Try the task yourself

The study runs in the browser — the balloon task, the risk scale, and the rest of the battery, ending in a report of your own results. It takes about twenty minutes.

bart.aselimyilmaz.com

Released as Milesaway

I also make music

The world’s heavy and a lot of it’s broken, and choosing to dance anyway is the most honest protest he’s got.

Releases and where to listen

Who is writing

I study at Middle East Technical University in Ankara. My work sits across decision science, behavioral economics, cognitive neuroscience, and quantitative finance.

selim.yilmaz@metu.edu.tr